That was my assumption, yes. Because the last person would have the entire population on the tracks, and you can’t really continue after that.
I neglected the intermediary likelihoods, because that calculation was too long for wolfram alpha, but I have since managed to get it working, and the conclusion is not significantly different. The expected number of deaths skyrockets, even if the chance of pulling the lever is tiny for every person.
I think you should pull the lever, even if this ended after the entire human population was on the track and the experiment doesn’t go on infinitely. Hear me out:
When a person pulls the lever with a chance of 50% and in one case they kill 2 people and in the other case 0, the kind of average outcome is 0.5 * 2 + (1 - 0.5) * 0 = 1. Now let’s consider the last person in the chain of decision-makers. They would have 2^33 people on the tracks, or about the entire human population. To make the expected outcome be exactly one person, they’d have to pull the lever with likelihood x so that x * 2^33 + (1 - x) * 0 = 1 which would lead to x = 1/2^33 or about x≈0.0000000001. So only if the last person directs the train towards the people with less than this tiny chance, the expected outcome is smaller than 1. This chance is incredibly small, and far far smaller than I’d guess the actual percentage is. Think of the percentage of people that are psychopaths, or mass murderers, or maybe even just clumsy. If you evaluate the percentage as someone flipping that switch as anything above 1/2^33, you should therefore flip the switch yourself. You can guarantee that the outcome is ‘only’ one death, whereas the average outcome of just the last person likely exceeds 1 by a huge amount.
I really wanted to calculate the percentage so that the expected outcome is 1 even if every person in the chain flips the switch with that chance, but wolfram alphas character limit let me down :(
Die ständig wechselnde Unsicherheit, ob man den Anschluss noch bekommt, ist ultra nervig.
War letztens auch in der Bahn, und ob ich noch früh genug für den Bus ankommen würde hat bei jeder Haltestelle geschwankt. Letztendlich war die Bahn zwei Minuten vorm Bus da, ich könnte es also knapp schaffen. Ich leg einen Sprint bis zur Haltestelle hin, nur um festzustellen: Da, wo die Bushaltestelle auf der Karte markiert ist, ist nichts. Ich warte kurz, suche dann in der Umgebung, und finde raus, dass die Haltestelle mit einem Bauprojekt versetzt wurde, was aber auf der Karte nicht angezeigt wird. Hab den Bus also verpasst. Nächster Bus? In 2 Stunden. Bin dann die 5km zu Fuß, war schneller.
I was even more confused with the apostrophe, thinking it said “OTHER DDE’S”. I was starting to doubt my english.
Next, the guy behind you can pay to block your seat. Final step is to start an auction to see who is willing to pay more to either recline or block my seat. Now the airline can make even more money!
I love the thought that someone “anti woke” played through Gay World just to make sure it is actually woke
taylor swift is genrefluid confirmed
modern problems require modern solutions
It’s not really a good point, it’s just classic cherrypicking. Jesus himself said in Matthew 5:17 “Do not think that I have come to abolish the Law or the Prophets; I have not come to abolish them but to fulfill them.” so clearly the old testament law should still apply. Christians are just faced with the reality that they could not live their life in accordance with old testament law in todays age, and have therefore chosen to ignore laws from the old testament.
I think this is just worded poorly. What they meant is that you can trade in an iPhone 13 Pro or newer, and when you trade in an iPhone, you can get up to $1100. That doesn’t mean you’ll get $1100 for an iPhone 13 Pro, just that you can get $1100 for probably a 16 Pro, but 13 Pro owners still get something instead of nothing.
reminded me of the meme "Switch up your swear words. Keep them potent.
Call someone a piece of fuck. Tell them to go shit themselves.
Keep the magic alive."
Weird, it does render correctly for me on the app I’m using. But thank you!
Wordle 1,524 6/6
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
⬛🟨🟨🟨🟩
🟩🟩⬛⬛🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
This was a close call for me, phew
Wordle 1,518 5/6
⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬜🟨🟨🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Wordle 1,504 5/6
⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜🟩🟩🟨⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
built a pyramid with an antenna today
That’s exactly right, you got it!
The intermediary probabilities make it even worse, yes! But the overall probability is already ridiculously tiny, so I don’t think it changes the conclusion by a lot.