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Cake day: July 30th, 2023

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  • Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. … But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working.

    Hypothetical situation: the Trump administration’s prediction that the Iran war lasts two more weeks proves dead-on accurate, and the US strikes degrade Iranian retaliatory capabilities to exactly zero by April Fools Day. They are reduced to a half a dozen AK-47s and a couple hundred rounds of ammo. Trump declares victory, the US packs up the 5th Fleet and goes home, and everyone makes a ton of money on Kalshi bets.

    Now what? As the US stands down, Iran re-arms, and starts lobbing drones at ships in the Strait. Or its neighbors’ oil infrastructure. Or Israel. They drop a couple drifting mines in the Strait just for fun. Nothing requiring too much infrastructure, but everybody’s on eggshells because there’s a chance the Ayatollah will decide to ruin the day of someone in the Gulf.

    How can the US respond to the threats to the region, without acquiescing to Iran’s demands? I see at least 3 possibilities. They could ignore it, or they could constantly send materiel and personnel to deal with the lingering threat, or they could invade Iran to permanently subjugate the country. Ignoring it is probably off the table: allowing Iran to dictate the future of the region is pretty obviously contrary to America’s and its allies’ interests. So that leaves the two interventions: low and high. The low intervention leads to a war of attrition: how long is the US willing to burn money and lives to keep Iran contained?

    They could also invade Iran, which requires much more manpower, munitions, and logistical support than the slow burn. Expect a protracted conflict in inhospitable terrain with an unfriendly populace (both of which are several times the size of Iraq).

    So the question is, how likely is the above scenario? If it is likely, even foreseeable, how on Earth does this war serve US strategic interests? What about the economic effects of all this chaos? Moreover, the US assassinated the leader of a country while engaged in negotiations with that country. Why would anyone consider the US a reliable partner again in the future? Again, unless your strategy is to stir up as much bullshit as possible, what purpose does this war actually serve?


  • Good. Don’t vote. If you were so stupid/racist/sexist/oblivious to history as to vote for Trump in 2024 you should not be voting at all.

    Trump and the Republicans (who only exist as his personal ball-washers to sanewash and rubberstamp everything he does; they are indistinguishable at this point) documented all the policies they were going to pursue in the Project 2025 policy document, which was readily available to read before the election. You were warned about this loudly and repeatedly.

    Trump’s behavior is also a known quantity. I suspect you did not magically appear on Earth to vote for him in 2024 having never experienced the reality of his first term, so you also should have had the benefit of knowing what he is like.

    You therefore knew (or should have known) what he was like and what he wanted to do. If you knew, congratulations on getting exactly what you voted for. If not, you’re a low-information voter. You shouldn’t be voting at all because you are, at best, blindly picking a choice that everyone else has to live with too. So stay home. Don’t vote. Then at least nobody else has to suffer with the consequences of your ignorance.






  • I think you’re 100% right, and boy, this piece made me big mad. Yet another outlet breathlessly publishing fucking nonsense for a ghoul, who by uncritically publishing said ghoul’s dire warning of the imminent birth of a superintelligent malign(?) entity, serves as his unpaid marketing firm. Axios should be embarrassed. If anyone who wasn’t the head of an LLM company spouted this drivel, they’d be locked away in a padded room and Axios would rightly be called out for exacerbating the mental health crisis of a paranoid schizophrenic.

    The whole essay reads like, “Here at Anthropic, we’re doing our best to create the Torment Nexus, but if anybody else were to successfully create the Torment Nexus, that would represent an existential risk for humanity. We’re doing our best to create it first, so please give us more money. To save humanity. From the Torment Nexus that we created.” It would be utter lunacy if he actually believed it.











  • Question: is Tucker sanewashing Fuentes by giving him an in to mainstream media? Or is Fuentes “nazi-washing” Tucker and helping him out by giving him access to Fuentes’ audience? For a much better breakdown than I can give, Dan & Jordan at Knowledge Fight just covered this in episode 1089.

    Tucker has already debased himself, as if that were possible, by interviewing the likes of Alex Jones (who of course has had Fuentes on his show multiple times). It’s not like he’s any more guilty by direct association. Given that 30-40% of young republican DC staffers may be groypers (not exactly a scientific poll but I mean…doesn’t this comport with recent experience), is it surprising that he’s cozying up to a literal nazi in a desperate attempt to stay relevant to the next generation of republicans?

    And as Knowledge Fight (honestly pretty exhaustingly exhaustively) shows: Fuentes has been making the rounds lately. All the right-wing grifters and shitheels have had him on—they are fully on board with the sentiment. This is precisely what 4chan circa 2016 hath wrought: the old guys are still “hiding their power level” but the young republicans are out and proud nazis. This is just Tucker tapping into that base. For money.

    As bleak as all that is, I still hold on to hope that there are enough of us who have resisted the brainrot and redpill propaganda enough to see these goofy assholes for what they are. Because listening to what they have to say should be a potent vaccine against their ideas. If you’ve got even a shred of humanity left in you.