Despite Paris Agreement pledges, countries ‘have landed off target’ on climate goals multiple times, the UN warns.
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Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
Depending on who you ask, we passed it and are at 1.7C since pre-industrial era.
Thank goodness for AI here to find us a solution. /sarcasm
Depending on who you ask, we passed it and are at 1.7C since pre-industrial era.
Whomever is saying that can be ignored, the 1.5 they are talking about is a rolling 30 year average. We’re at about 1.3 now
1.5 is horrific but likely survivable, 2c is horrific as tipping points will take over and we’ll be unable to stop going to 4C and beyond and collapsing civilisation.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2024/06/14/opinion/science-civilization-collapse-environment-limits
.>Rees bluntly states, “the human enterprise is effectively subsuming the ecosphere” and “wide-spread societal collapse cannot be averted — collapse is not a problem to be solved, but rather the final stage of a cycle to be endured.”
Just because it would take 15 more years for the rolling average to catch up[1] doesn’t mean we haven’t exceeded 1.5°C.
The single-year data point for 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. Sure, 2025 might turn out to be colder than that. It probably won’t. But whatever, the heating is not decreasing. We have already hit the horrific level, and since we are not slowing down our emissions at anywhere near the required level, we are more or less guaranteed to hit 2°C beyond that, and then the collapse. Every little bit of reduction still counts for a lot (simply because the scale of the tragedy is going to be so apocalyptically globe-spanning) but the time for preventing the tipping points was circa 2000.
[1] If it continued up linearly which it will not
The rolling 30 year average? Is too slow a measure. We’re seeing tipping points already, such as the AMOC collapse take hold. The Amazon Rainforest has been a net carbon producer for two years running.
They cannot be ignored. The rolling average is far too long to be taken seriously, and only benefits the heaviest polluters. It also undermines the drastic changes needed and how quickly we need to implement them. I understand the need for a rolling average for the sake of science, but 5 years should suffice. It would show a much better and more useful statistic than 3 fucking decades. At 5 years it would be far more precise, and would even show slowdowns in heating (mostly just la niña). You’re doing the work of polluters by making that argument. If nothing else there should be several metrics, rolling 5, 10, 15, and 30. To claim “we haven’t hit 1.5c yet” is only technically true.
