The most well documented genocide while it is happening. First livestreamed genocide. If you can’t see this genocide happening, then you could never see a genocide until afterwards.

Of course they can’t figure out what is going on, using their own eyes is not in the interest of the oligarchs they serve.

general-purpose simulators which simulate conversations that agents, oracles, genies, or tools might have

Good formulation, but in the spirit of the article I would say “might have had”. Being per definition trained on existing material they can produce likely imitations of conversations that already exists. One would suppose the value of a conversation between oracles and geniuses would be to produce something new, on effect text that is more than the statistically likely output.

Good article, thanks for linking it.

I hadn’t read HPRick and Morty, so thanks for that!

Lots of gems about wizard fascism. I liked this part:

“It means, oh golly oh gee, that uh, one day science will discover space travel and cryogenics and then we’ll all be, uh, immortal space gods with our own private stars, Professor!”

Harry hated how inarticulate he sometimes sounded outside of his own internal monologues, which were much more elaborate. One of these days he would have to sit down and write down his internal monologues in a coherent sequence.

I find it a bit interesting that it isn’t more wrong. Has it ingested large tables and got a statistical relationship between certain large factors and certain answers? Or is there something else going on?

the game memorizes these moments, what you say, how they react, and creates story arcs based on it

LLMs famously can’t be consistent, so your fantasy game would have story arcs that doesn’t fit together, brings back characters that are already dead as if nothing happened, and everyone would have a son named Dorian.

I know you mean sovereign citizens, but reading “sovcit” my first thought goes to Eastmeg One (and my second thought goes to Eastmeg Two, obviously).

One author (Daniel) correctly predicted chain-of-thought reasoning, inference scaling, and sweeping chip export controls one year BEFORE ChatGPT existed

Ah, this reminds me of an old book I came across years ago. Printed around 1920 it spent the first half with examples of how the future has been foretold correctly many, many times across history. The author had also made several correct foretellings, among them the Great War. Apparently he tried to warn the Kaiser.

The second half was his visions of the future including a great war…

Unfortunately it was France and Russia invading the Nordic countries in the 1930ies. The Franco-Russian alliance almost got beat thanks to new electric weapons, but then God himself intervened and brought the defenders low because the people had been sining and turning away from Christianity.

An early clue to the author being a bit particular was when he argued that he got his ability to predict the future because he was one quarter Sami, but could still be trusted because he was “3/4 solid Nordic stock”. Best combo apparently and a totally normal way to describe yourself.

No, This is shit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cE4lpSFNFUE

(Actually it is quite good. The linked tune that is. Not the book.)

I did jiu-jitsu In middle school. We had two guys who were perhaps about 20 years old as assistant coaches. Pretty impressive belt colours and to us kids really cool and good at jiu-jitsu. I don’t remember their names, lets call them Jim and Peter.

So nearing the end of a class Jim and Peter gathers us for a bit of pep talk. Jim: Good work everybody! Peter: We will soon end class, but first one thing… Jim: No? No, that was the last thing? Peter: Everyone, get Jim! Jim: What? No!

And I can tell you Jim was no match for two dozen ten year olds with white belts.

Soviets were in theory democratic councils but were in practice ruled top-down (except in the very beginning, according to Emma Goldman in her book “My two years in Russia”). So I don’t think there is much similarity there.

On the other hand, charter cities are according to Wikipedia essentially areas where a more advanced economy “helps” a third world country by “temporarily” taking over governance to develope the area. In other words: a colony.

And in the historical part of their video I missed the other parts of the industrial revolution. You know the taking over other countries to get cheap raw materials, cheap labour and captive markets. Surely just an oversight that they forgot to mention how colonialism has worked before and its role in why poor countries are poor.

Isn’t “pandemic preparation” one of their longtermist causes that they grift money to? Shouldn’t they have been able to show some results?

I think funding and repetition are the fundamental building blocs here, rather than the human psyche itself. I have talked with otherwise bright people who have read an article by some journalist (not necessarily a rationalist) who has interviewed AI researchers (probably cultists, was it 500 million USD that was pumped into the network?) who takes AI doom seriously.

So you have two steps of people who in theory are paid to evaluate and formulate the truth, to inform readers who don’t know the subject matter. And then add repetition from various directions and people get convinced that there is definitely something there (propaganda and commercials work the same way). Claiming that it’s all nonsense and cultists appears not to have much effect.

I have been meaning to ask is there an overlap between rationalists and incels? Or do they both overlap with neoreactionaries?

At times their idea world appears close to each other.

Poetic description of normal weather in Finland.

Also, if you think either of these are true:

Lab Leaks Common: There is a 33% chance of a lab-leak-caused pandemic per decade. Lab Leaks Rare: There is a 10% chance of a lab-leak-caused pandemic per decade.

You should probably be campaigning to increase safety or shut down the labs you think would be responsible. 10% risk of pandemic per decade due to lab leaks (so in addition to viruses mutating on their own) isn’t rare or an acceptable risk.

It looks like they combine the hubris of an anarchist or a communist group that talks about being the vanguard of the proletariat while being like five people (and Steve only comes for the snacks, and Mike is probably a fed) with the methods of an upper class philanthropy association that has gala dinners and discuss the problems of poverty (Upper class twit voice: is it that the poor are stupid, of bad stock or just lazy? Maybe all three!)

Somehow it’s not beneficial to their mental health, or anything else really.

I hesitate to ask, but information hazards be damned.

In that worldview, what are cis gay persons? Also intersex or something else?

I am late to sneer culture. I read HPMOR back in the day and even visited LW and then forgot about it. EA (mosquito) was on my radar but since philanthropy is anyway a bandaid on societal problems I hadn’t bothered. Until FTX crashed. I already knew crypto was a scam, but a scam that wraps itself in bad philosophy is more interesting.

After a lot of old Twitter threads and Tumblr posts it finally clicked: They made the Harry Potter fanfic guy their prophet!

Which is so stupid that it fits perfectly into our timeline.

Stop jaywalking!

You have 15 seconds to comply!

10 seconds!

5 seconds!

Sidewalk turned into a smoking crater

And poorly at that. Intelligence is a mugs game, if you put your genetic points towards longevity you can keep your initial crowd of scientist/explorers as research leaders longer, which gives a bigger boost to research and more advantages.

At least until the robot god restarts the simulation and/or Paradox releases a new patch.